To our knowledge, no one has ever done this type of analysis previously or produced this type of chart before. As usual, we are market timer firsts. The stock charts suggests we should see a sharp spike UP in the market around now, though that would have to be confirmed with the lunar seasonal.

The other factor seasonal we’d like to highlight is the DJI typical price pattern in years when the government is doing everything possible to provide easy money, as the market has about an 80% correlation with this trend. You can see the forward expectations if this pattern is to hold, once again forecasting a near term bump UP against all expectations.

Naturally you can find lots of individual stocks obeying their seasonal tendencies in our monthly newsletters. Just grab a sample subscription and see for yourself all the money you could be making with this insider information.

The S&P 500 Follows different Seasonal trends during Recessions (RED) than during Expansions (Green)

Examining stock market trends in different fundamental economic, monetary and even political environments reveals a multitude of profitable trading opportunities, as well as easily avoided pitfalls.

Today let’s look at the Factor Seasonal Trends for the S&P 500 during recessions compared to expansions.

You can see the S&P 500 trends dramatically different in these two different fundamental environments.

During recessions (shown in RED) the S&P 500 tends to have a brief January rally ending in mid-February.  You can see the expected spring rally is flattened out in recessions.

Active traders should expect to see a lot of indicator whipsaws in the traditional spring rally period during recessions as the market trends sideways instead of up.

The S&P then sees a steep decline in late summer through October before a volatile sideways market grays the hairs of investors during the early winter months.

Contrast that to the S&P 500s seasonal trends during business cycle expansions (shown in GREEN).

In expansions January tends to see little upward movement but the Spring Rally strengthens considerably until Mid-July when the index hits a sharp – but short – downtrend. The autumn months remain seasonally weak but that weaknesses shows as flat, sideways trend in expansions rather than the sharp, gut-wrenching downturns in recessions.

Finally the S&P 500 picks up the final two months of the year showing a strong November and December rally.

You can easily see how profitable analyzing the FACTOR seasonal trends — seasonal trends broken down by the differing economic, monetary and political environments – can be. And the Recessions vs. Expansion Factor Seasonal Trend is just one of several we’ve found has a dramatic impact on market trends.