Market Timing Research

I recently read an article about 9 stocks that grew during the recession we’re in. It turns out we can examine 5 of them with our Factor Seasonal program to see what their stock charts look like for business cycle expansions and recessions, as identified by NBIR. Just look at the stock chart and your stock analysis will be done in a few moments.

These 5 stocks are:

F – Ford Motor
WMT – Walmart
AAPL – Apple COmputer
RL – Polo Ralph Lauren
SBUX – Starbucks

After view these charts you can decide for yourself if the stock prices are currently following the Recession or Expansion factor seasonal trend. When a stock isn’t following any pattern closely or what it’s following doesn’t make sense, I stay away. When it seems to be following its typical behavioral pattern from a particular fundamental environment, and that makes sene, then I adjust my investment decisions accordingly.

You decide…

Is the Dow Jones really going up, or is this another set-up for a fall?

Long term, we don’t see how the US can escape a double dip recession. In fact, it really hasn’t left the “first recession” with unemployment at record rates. And now that census takers are being left off, retail is off, commercial real estate is off (the malls are empty) because consumers aren’t spending, new home sales are off (so don’t expect a boon in construction workers any time soon), the BP Oil spill will hit the coastal states, … frankly with all this true BAD news I don’t see where the recovery lies.

Nevertheless, the market CAN do some crazy things…for awhile until reality catches up. Here’s the best seasonal forecast of the DOW we can provide at present.

This chart does suggest a fake rally and dip by month’s end, then rally into August. By cycles analysis, August 6-13 could see a mini-top in the market, and then a decline, so stay tuned to your MACD signals or trendline breaks for signals. A long term moving average would be much too slow for what we expect.

If you’d like, you can click here to get our Factor Seasonal Trading software – and our 3 Market Timing Services – right now FREE for 14-days so you can see the forecasted trends for the stocks, ETFs, indexes or mutual funds you’re trading or investing in.