Is the Dow Jones really going up, or is this another set-up for a fall?
Long term, we don’t see how the US can escape a double dip recession. In fact, it really hasn’t left the “first recession” with unemployment at record rates. And now that census takers are being left off, retail is off, commercial real estate is off (the malls are empty) because consumers aren’t spending, new home sales are off (so don’t expect a boon in construction workers any time soon), the BP Oil spill will hit the coastal states, … frankly with all this true BAD news I don’t see where the recovery lies.
Nevertheless, the market CAN do some crazy things…for awhile until reality catches up. Here’s the best seasonal forecast of the DOW we can provide at present.
This chart does suggest a fake rally and dip by month’s end, then rally into August. By cycles analysis, August 6-13 could see a mini-top in the market, and then a decline, so stay tuned to your MACD signals or trendline breaks for signals. A long term moving average would be much too slow for what we expect.
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