Market Timing Research

Some people are saying that the US market will do better this year than China’s stock market. Frankly, I think that Taiwan, which has started to normalize relations with China, will be the big winner of the three. If China keeps going strong, Taiwan’s inroads will continue. If the US trumps China this year, Taiwan will still plow forward with its moves at business integration.

This funny video just appeared on how the US could get China to revalue its currency overnight, the Yuan (remingbi), if it just imposed punitive duties. I do not believe we would see a rush of factories returning to US shores, however, if this happened. We would see a switch of manufacturing to Vietnam instead and the US, which offsored its capabilities, would not be able to gain very many jobs in return. With globalization we sent those jobs everywhere, South America included.

Nonetheless I do believe that sometime in from 2011 to 2012 the U.S. will finally awaken and push China into a higher negotiated exchange rate. Naturally it will not be the high rate that the US wants, and also it will not save the US … the video speaks the truth about this. China wants to do nothing of the sort because it needs a low remingbi to keep factories churning out orders and people employed. Social unrest is a big potential problem in China, and you can expect many issues like that to hit the forefront of the People’s Congress in 2012.

Sometime in 2011-2012, our contrarian instincts suggest the Yuan, or remingbi as I used to know it when I was in China, will be revalued dramatically. Watch the video and then the seasonal forecasts for the Yuan, FXI and Taiwan ETF — EWT.

Here is the current seasonal chart of the Yuan via the CYB ETF, the FXI and EWT … for the Yuan there is too few years to make any reliable seasonal, and the accuracy fo the FXI prediction is lousy at the moment, but that’s the best we can do …

Last month we had a real hit (and great success in accuracy) showing some stock forecasts like RYAAY which followed their seasonal projections right in line with expectations. Well our NASDAQ100 newsletter was released August 28 — a few days early this month — to allow traders to get in some early trading since a lot of good patterns were expected to develop right around September 1.

A few days have passed, so let’s look at just three sample forecasts for YHOO, SBUX and PDCO right out of the newsletter, though of course the newsletter (and our S&P100 newsletter) have many more great trades inside, especially since we are waiting for mid-month highs to short a number of stocks or sell calls or buy puts.

As always, we are NOT RECOMMENDING any particular trade or trading strategy, nor saying these forecasts will come true, or guaranteeing you will make money with our newsletter, nor rendering trading advice, nor one of 1,000 different things our lawyers tell us to mention. Our normal disclaimers apply, and you are hereby noticed to read those disclaimers.

That legal gobbely-gook being said, here are the seasonal analysis forecasts for 3 sample stocks from the latest NASDAQ100 newsletter, and you can see how the shares are already following very clear expectations.

Personally I expect stock reversals for many shares starting around September 7-8 and 14-15, so I have a close stop on my own trades. I chose not to even show the bearish trades yet since the best are yet to come, so there’s still time to subscribe and get those.

The whole point is that you can use these Factor Seasonal chart projections, in conjunction with normal technical analysis, to buy/sell stocks and buy/sell options. I particularly like writing vertical credit spreads since with the mathematics available from the ThinkOrSwim platform, we can lower our risks tremendously picking the right strike price and expiration that are likely to collect premium more safely. The newsletters give the timing and direction, and the ThinkorSwim platform gives the math.

I hope to offer another newsletter on this trading strategy in a few months time after we get all the details worked out for this yet another trading strategy possible using our factor seasonal analysis.

Until then, if you already trade options, then watch this video of projections and think about what YOU WOULD DO if you had this information that you could use with your own trading system …

Remember, every month we analyze 100 different stocks in our NASDAQ100 and S&P100 newsletters. Mid-month we release the DJIA newsletter, which follows the most optioned big cap stocks. If you are an active trader or investor, this is the one service that provides projections whereas everyone else just offers opinions. Our best offer is the Seasonal Cash Flow Trader package whose price is rising soon.