Market Timing Research

GE has caught the world’s notice … This past week, GE’s CEO Jeff Immelt gave an optimistic 2011 growth forecast for the firm after so many struggles. The global economic crisis, he said, has helped force GE to get back on track with its core businesses. Immelt confirmed one of our primary thesis points: China will be one of its key areas for growth. You should look at all your stocks and evaluate who is doing what in China, India and Brazil and well as the upcoming N-11 countries and African frontier markets, for these are the future. Long term grwoth and investment opportunities are in THESE markets, not the US.

Buffett and GE go back a long way because in the 2008 market collapse Buffett provided $3 billion to GE in return for preferred stock and warrants to buy $3 billion in GE common shares. GE’s stock hasn’t shown a dramatic recovery, and now the company is reporting that 2011 finally looks rosy. But as to the stock price…check the seasonals.

This does not mean that this will come true because a roraring bull can throw all these projections aside. However, you should be ready. Furthermore, whatever happens, Spring will definitely be a great time to pick up shares if the seasonal holds true. That’s what seasonals help you predict.

This list is priceless….if you have our seasonal charts to see whether the trend is large enough and long enough to risk or not. But I’ve marked the stocks to watch with asterisks!

So this is a list of the typical seasonal top dates for various stocks from the NASDAQ100 and S&P100 based on analysis from our seasonal analysis charting software. Naturally the dates can be shifted forwards and backwards several days each and would change if the market changed dramatically as well.

You also have to confirm any triggers with price trend indicators and our seasonal program, too, which you get with our Super Seasonal Cash Flow Trader’s package. For instance, some people are calling for a market top September 7-8, or September 13-14-15, and September 23. So many possibilities. I personally think September 14 will be the important date though I will carefully watch the 7-8 period.

Enjoy – And as I always sign the end of our newsletters, may favorable trade winds be with you.

MO – Sept 10-15
T – Sept 30
BNY – Sept 10-15
CVS – Sept 10-13-15 **
HD – Sept 13 **
LOW – Sept 13
WY – Sept 15, 24, 29-30 **
BAX – Sept 14-20 **
DD – Sept 13 **
FDX – Sept 16 **
HAL – Sept 9-13 **
MON – Sept 8, 20 **
TGT – Sept 13, 16 **
AMAT – Sept 10 **
ESRX – Sept 16, 29 **
GENZ – Sept 13-16
MCHP – Sept 8-13 **
NVDA – Sept 20
ROST – Sept 15
ALTR – Sept 20-22 **
APOL – Sept 9 **
CHKP – Sept 13, 30
EXPD – Sept 14
FISV – Sept 13-15 **
FLEX – Sept 9-10 **
FLIR – Sept 17 **
IACI – Spet 15 **
LLTC – Sept 13-15 **
LBTYA – Sept 13-16 **
MRVL – Sept 8
PCAR – Sept 3 **
URBN – Sept 15
WYNN – Sept 17, 21, 24 **

And now, some support dates …

CL – Sept 22
SO – Sept 21-23
CVX – Sept 23
ETR – Sept 23
MRK – Sept 30
MICC – Sept 15
PAYX – Sept 23, October 7

DO NOT FIXATE ON THESE DATES.

They are indications from the seasonal charts. You must be adaptive and confirm price changes with indicators before something becomes a stock pick. However, now you have the BEST, the absolute best predictions possible at this moment. If the market changes severely, naturally these dates will change as well because we will select different years from our past history bin to create our forecast.

But now you know the type of information you can mine from our newsletters. Not a lot of stocks to watch out of 200! And if you look at the seasonal charts, you whittle this list down even further.

Now that’s the power of the Factor Seasonal charts!

I recently read an article about 9 stocks that grew during the recession we’re in. It turns out we can examine 5 of them with our Factor Seasonal program to see what their stock charts look like for business cycle expansions and recessions, as identified by NBIR. Just look at the stock chart and your stock analysis will be done in a few moments.

These 5 stocks are:

F – Ford Motor
WMT – Walmart
AAPL – Apple COmputer
RL – Polo Ralph Lauren
SBUX – Starbucks

After view these charts you can decide for yourself if the stock prices are currently following the Recession or Expansion factor seasonal trend. When a stock isn’t following any pattern closely or what it’s following doesn’t make sense, I stay away. When it seems to be following its typical behavioral pattern from a particular fundamental environment, and that makes sene, then I adjust my investment decisions accordingly.

You decide…

Yahoo Finance recently had an article listing the favorite stocks of multi-millionaires and billionaires. These stocks include Warren Buffett’s Bershire Hathaway (BRK-A), the Fairholme Fund (FAIRX) and the following:

Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE: BAM): Brookfield is a Canadian asset manager that owns and operates real infrastructure and property assets.

Leucadia National (NYSE: LUK): Leucadia is a diversified holding company with interests in telecommunications, manufacturing, oil and gas drilling and gaming.

Loews (NYSE: L): Loews’ owns three publicly traded subsidiaries in insurance, oil and gas drilling and gas pipelines.

Markel (NYSE: MKL): Specialty insurer is similar to Berkshire Hathaway.

I thought it would be interesting to give you the best seasonal stock chart projections at this moment. Sure these are value players that engage in fundamental analysis, but you can use seasonal analysis on top of them to know when to trade. Remember that if the stock doesn’t have a 70% correlation to the forecasting mechanims, then we wouldn’t bother to list it in our newsletter if we were covering it, so you only trade it according to our charts when it’s matching the seasonals with accuracy, meaning it’s trading according to its typical pattern. That’s what we call running after the safe profits (if there is such a thing) — you’re bullish, so you pick a value stock to buy that tends to go up, and you invest in it when its seasonal trend is pointing up too (and the factor seasonal when that cinches it).

And if you’re a value investor or use a value strategy for part of your portfolio read my article on How to combine value investing with seasonal analysis

Even though some of these projection charts aren’t showing our minimum 70% correlation, I’m showing you the best forecast possible just because I wanted to give you something to think about and possibly a way to make money. Every month our newsletters show JUST the stocks following their seasonals with high reliability and predictability so you can trade or invest with them. That’s how we make our money because we believe that our “secret sauce” formula computes the seasonals correctly.

Here are the charts…