Market Timing Research

Many folks have asked us about the Macro millionaire Coaching Program. We give it two thumbs up. In fact, we suggest you take our seasonal software and run the macro trades through them first to see whether the timing can be improved or not. Ins ome cases we’ve found we can improve the trade greatly.

As we always say, you must use some method to pick the trades, and use the seasonal method, when appropriate to refine the timing. You can be a technical trader and just trade off the seasonals alone, but when you have a fundamental macro bias, and the seasonals align, you have a perfect storm of trend following profits in store.

John Thomas, the Macro Millionaire expert of global macro hedge fund trading trends, has just released a new video you might want to watch Six Major Trends for 2011 That Will Make You Rich or Miserable

If you are interested in the Macro Millionaire Coaching Program, click on this link to find out more information here including his track record, experience qualifications, world views, how to trade like a hedge fund, and so forth: ==> Macro Millionaire Coaching Program

GE has caught the world’s notice … This past week, GE’s CEO Jeff Immelt gave an optimistic 2011 growth forecast for the firm after so many struggles. The global economic crisis, he said, has helped force GE to get back on track with its core businesses. Immelt confirmed one of our primary thesis points: China will be one of its key areas for growth. You should look at all your stocks and evaluate who is doing what in China, India and Brazil and well as the upcoming N-11 countries and African frontier markets, for these are the future. Long term grwoth and investment opportunities are in THESE markets, not the US.

Buffett and GE go back a long way because in the 2008 market collapse Buffett provided $3 billion to GE in return for preferred stock and warrants to buy $3 billion in GE common shares. GE’s stock hasn’t shown a dramatic recovery, and now the company is reporting that 2011 finally looks rosy. But as to the stock price…check the seasonals.

This does not mean that this will come true because a roraring bull can throw all these projections aside. However, you should be ready. Furthermore, whatever happens, Spring will definitely be a great time to pick up shares if the seasonal holds true. That’s what seasonals help you predict.

Fortune magazine just ran a short article on Home Depot (HD), pointing out that hurricane season is coming. Right about now Home Depot usually makes a pop upwards in price, but we have a problem. And this problem is why we always tell people you must, you absolutely must look at the Factor Seasonals for a stock before you invest or trade because they will show how a stock acts in all sorts of environments.

But first, the best seasonal price forecast or projection chart for HD going forwards from this moment in time:

Right now, the Home Depot price behavior has most closely matched what it does during Bear Markets. Yes, Bear Markets. And with that knowledge, we can look at our Bull-Bear market Factor Seasonal chart of HD and see that the point of recognition is September 13. That’s when the stock possibly plummets. When you have your own seasonal software from our Super Seasonal Cash Flow Traders package, you can create this type of chart to determine this date exactly.

So how do you trade this? I wouldn’t. I simply look for the stocks where I have a much better certainty of outcome because all the factors are aligned. Every month I produce analysis for 100 stocks in each newseltter and ALWAYS find great trades. Home Depot has too much risk for me because I look for much better odds.

Oh, you mean you WANT to trade Home Depot, so you’re asking what to do? Well, come September 13 I might buy puts OR sell calls in a vertical credit spread. That’s me — it’s not a recommendation to you. Right now I might sell puts in a vertical spread as well…that’s me once again, not a recommendation. Buy for a pop? Too risky for me because of time cycles for the Dow Jones (of which Home Depot is a member) peaking the first week of September. It might go up but I just don’t like trades that short in time because it doesn’t give me enough time room for the seasonal to prove out, and with today’s volatility, I want all the factors in my favor. That’s why I go with the newsletter spotted set-ups.

Anyway, that’s how I do it. Doing it sometimes means “I don’t”. That doesn’t mean HD won’t go up or make money, just that the newsletter offers far better setups in my opinion.

Remember, check the Factor Seasonal charts before trading or longer term investing.

I recently read an article about 9 stocks that grew during the recession we’re in. It turns out we can examine 5 of them with our Factor Seasonal program to see what their stock charts look like for business cycle expansions and recessions, as identified by NBIR. Just look at the stock chart and your stock analysis will be done in a few moments.

These 5 stocks are:

F – Ford Motor
WMT – Walmart
AAPL – Apple COmputer
RL – Polo Ralph Lauren
SBUX – Starbucks

After view these charts you can decide for yourself if the stock prices are currently following the Recession or Expansion factor seasonal trend. When a stock isn’t following any pattern closely or what it’s following doesn’t make sense, I stay away. When it seems to be following its typical behavioral pattern from a particular fundamental environment, and that makes sene, then I adjust my investment decisions accordingly.

You decide…

I just completed our August newsletters for the S&P100 and Nasdaq100, and thought this would be a good time to show you how to use our newsletters to pick trades. No other service does this for you.

Now see our legal disclaimers to understand we’re not recommending you buy or sell these stocks, nor are we investment advisors, etc. I’m just showing you how each and every month you get 20-30 great trade possibilites, and usually 8-12 (or more during the early Spring and late Fall) stellar setups. So this is not a recommendation to buy or sell shares, nor is it a guarantee of profits or investment success. It’s sort of silly you have to mention this all the time, but it’s the legalities of the world today, and we suggest you read our full TERMS and DISCLAIMERS.

That said … once you have our Factor Seasonal price charts, you can go long, short, buy puts or calls, or whatever your normal investment or trading strategy happens to be after you find a forecast of interest. When the orange projection line and green ordinary seasonal agree, the trend is strong and worthwhile, the correlation with past price action (in the upper right corner) is 70% or higher, and there’s factor seasonal support, those are shares we like. So we don’t interfere with your strategy or try to teach you to be something you aren’t but simply find those setups for you that fit your trading style. These newsletters are perfect for finding you the trading opportunities you want, even if you are a day trader.

I tend to have an equal number of longs and shorts in volatile environments, but then  nearly 100% long or short when the trend becomes crystal clear. How do I pick my trades? I find perfect seasonal set-ups, like this video shows, wait for price action to trigger a MACD, tendline break, or Fisher transform crossover, and then take a position. Simple as that. Some win, some lose (no method is perfect), but at least you are stacking the odds in your favor.

Watch to see how I do this…the stocks being analyzed (we do the analysis for you so you only have to pick the stocks you want to trade) are MO and  CELG on the bullish side and RYAAY and JBHT on the bearish side.