We cannot tell you the answer to any of these questions. No one can. We can only tell you that BP, despite the problems, is finally following its ordinary seasonal chart once again, AND … and this is a big AND … is also follow the bullish monetary conditions Factor Seasonal chart. Both point up for the near term! You can see the correlations and price predictions below (and you can check below to see our Factor Seasonal rice prediction for these volatile shares was impossibly correct from last month, which happens quite a lot):

Let’s summarize the Factor Seasonal approach once again so you understand how it works. Once you look at the pictures and see the explanation, it becomes a commonsense must-have way of investing or trading. We are using the BP stock price simply as an example. But as stated, if you want to see how accurate we sometimes are, check this previous BP stock price seasonal prediction we did last month. Who could make such accurate predictions like this? We can! We do it all the time in each and every newsletter so check us out.

Basically there are two different types of approaches to seasonal trading: the investor and the trader. Both can benefit from our Factor Seasonal newsletters and software. I don’t care if you call this technical analysis or fundamental analysis because it is BOTH. It’s one of the few methods in the investing field that falls into the arenas of both technical and fundamental analysis because of its unique methodology.

Now the stock market investor looks to buy positions and … he/she wants to buy low and sell high. He or she selects stocks based on value investing concepts, fundamentals, earnings outlooks and the like.

We say “great” to that, but also say that once a stock passes your fundamental screening criteria, put it in our software or check the charts inside our Factor Seasonal newsletters. Just like with the BP stock price charts above, you’ll immediately see the probable time of year you’ll likely find a stock making a low like British Petroleum stock (or high if you want to sell). Trust me – you’re likely to avoid many catastrophic investment mistakes this way because I have.

With our newsletters and software, you’ll be able to weed through hundreds of stories playing 24 hours a day from useless talking heads on TV pushing this or that share. Remember, there are thousands of analysts in the US and how do they fare? Most mutual funds don’t beat the market and for the last 10 years the stock market return has been net zero, and which talking heads or analysts predicted that? However, they might have made good chunk of change with the approach I’m going to teach you. You decide…

Now the standard advice, which is sound, is don’t just jump in and buy shares because you see a stock in the news or because there’s a bullish earnings report or new earnings estimate. A big part of the game of making money in the stock market is NOT trading or investing according to emotions but looking at analysis, and I’m going to show you how to tune out the “smack talk” from TV.

The Factor Seasonal approach helps you calm your tendency to over-trade, and gives you courage to act when you want to buy, too. This is the only form of analysis, other than cycles forecasting, that gives you a clear picture of predicted stock directions. In fact, since it’s based on the repeatable company economics that become incorporated into stock prices, it’s a little more reliable than cycles since they are just based on prices alone without any tie to fundamentals.

With these charts on the BP stock price, we can see that the seasonal low might be in, and BP has somewhat turned around. However, according to the charts we can also expect a drop in September, as you can clearly see. We’re not saying the BP stock price will follow the pattern exactly (even though we have an outstanding track record of accurate projections from our software), but many stocks actually do turn when predicted a significant portion of the time … even despite wild market volatility … and you can use that fact to your advantage to make money.

We’re simply using British Petroleum to introduce the concept of Factor Seasonal trading. It is truly the first really new thing in technical and fundamental stock analysis in a long time and since it isn’t popularly known yet, the early bird gets the worm. How are people using it? They do all their other analysis and then as a final sieve, run the stock through a Factor Seasonal analysis filter before pulling the trigger on a buy or sell order. What you see will tell you whether to act now or wait a bit. The Factor Seasonal newsletters are like a magic stock charting machine that helps you anticipate what to expect in the upcoming price trajectory, and therefore it helps you manage and balance your trading risks. No longer are you flying totally blind based on just earnings estimates and analyst numbers or relative strength figures alone. Now you have more, and a clear expectation of a stock’s flight path …

I am finding indications that some large investors and fund managers might already be actively using some type of seasonal price trading approach (without the factor seasonal economic charts, of course) IN A BIG WAY because when we identify shares that triggered a MACD signal today and then check them the next morning, in many cases the stock runs up immediately from the open because of all the buy orders, and experiences an incredible run-up the rest of the day to complete the first leg up of an anticipated large bull move. It’s happened so many times that I’m wondering if some top hedge fund managers have discovered part of our secrets.

Let me explain the basic methodology of Factor Seasonal trading/investing a different way to help make it more clear. Today or tonight, you screen for stocks that just had a MACD (or other system) buy signal. Next you check those stocks against the seasonal chart (we also check it against the Recession/Expansion and other Factor seasonal charts) to see if the trigger is at the beginning of an important run-up, or just a price blip or whipsaw you don’t want to be trading.

If a big run up is expected dead ahead, the next day you can trade (if you choose to act on those shares and that signal). In our case, through tons of research we have come up with what we believe is the very best way to create the correct price seasonal chart to identify the correct trading periods (and a unique technique it is), AND we confirm the price expectations we develop with fundamental Factor Seasonal charts to further put the odds in our favor and weed out stocks that might go down or simply won’t perform.

No one else is doing this, which is why a newsletter subscription may be of interest. Frankly we like action, quick action, and you can get the set-ups for high extreme bullish moves from our monthly newsletters quite easily. Just like in the BP stock price charts above, you can’t miss the shares of interest one you glance at the patterns, and it’s easy to dismiss trading this or that share during a difficult period.

Everyone is all the rage on Apple at the moment. The news is AAPL, AAPL, AAPL because of the ipod, iphone, ipad, iTunes, apps and more. Well, resist the tendency to join the crowd. Be a contrarian and wait. Trade or invest in something else that looks better with a stronger seasonal for the immediate period ahead. Check the seasonals first before you trade …

If you filter the stocks that pass your tests of

[1] having a MACD trigger and
[2] significant immediate seasonal pattern up-rise with
[3] some type of relative valuation estimates also (IBD ranking, Vectorvest, FusionIQ, etc.),

then you have a nice way of stacking confirmation upon confirmation upon confirmation.

As I said, it’s not about the excitement of trading off news, but about making money, period. This methodology will blow your socks off once you get started and master the technique. As we joking say in one of our sales pieces, it’s a method for becoming a “stock market wizard” because we believe it truly is. But that’s just us.

I had a conversation with a newbie investor the other day and I told him if I was starting out, this is the one thing I would do. In fact, you could even go market neutral and buy stocks with bullish Factor Seasonals, and short sell those with bearish Factor seasonals, and not be risking too much if I was truly market neutral.

Even simpler, I would look for a technical trend following signal before I’d consider purchasing a stock. I’d run it past the Factor Seasonal price expectations to rule it out or rank it as to run-up potential, with steep up curves better than gentle slopes. And if I used a ranking system for stocks (relative strength, earnings strength, etc.) I’d use that too, though I make pretty good money with just the first two steps alone. ThinkorSwim.com has free software that will allow me to screen for MACD signals every day, and other free screening software is on the web, so the first step is covered. We’re the second step. The third step is optional but yet another way to help stack odds in your favor.

You don’t have to trade or invest all the time this way, but once you see what you can do with our newsletters and software, I’m sure you’ll be hooked and this will become part of your bag of must-use tools for out performance. I’m CONVINCED it will be so. Here’s the best way to get started with us at the moment: The Seasonal Cash Flow Trader Package.

Now for traders, what you do is use our newsletter to anticipate the likely trend of a stock of interest. The price seasonal projections are stage one of this process. The Factor Seasonal trends are stage two. When they both head in the same direction, FANTASTIC – all things are confirming one another. Odds are double stacked in my favor. If the two don’t confirm, I pass and go to some other share. Why? Because I don’t want to risk it when there are plenty of other opportunities around.

In fact, this method is the quickest way to rid yourself of impatience because you’ll always find other stocks to replace the one that isn’t quite perfect for the risk. That’s what you want. That filtering ability provided by the Factor Seasonal charts is a blessing from heaven, and has kept me out of so many losing trades I can’t count anymore. There’s always another stock with great Factor Seasonal set-ups, so I don’t sweat that I’m missing out on anything anymore. There’s no pressure to have an itchy trigger finger, for this is a more relaxed, Jimmy Buffett style of trading and investing. Yes, you can do this on the beach because it is so simple. Just open up our latest newsletter, immediately find the stocks where there is a bullish or bearish setup of interest, and then follow it for a MACD, trend line break, or other price trigger signal. And as I said, if there are several stocks of interest, you can rank them by the size of the coming anticipated move, or by some valuation rating offered by other third party newsletters.

So “passing” on a stock doesn’t mean don’t trade it or that it won’t go up, just that I’m looking for stocks that just triggered buy signals right in front of a historically repeatable BIG seasonal move. You’ll find many stocks that trigger BUYS right in front of seasonal up moves, but I rank them according to the SIZE of the anticipated bullish move and put more money on the big up-moves rather than small up-moves. This is how options traders use our services, too.

If all the indications line up for bullishness, the way I work it is to trade that share on the long side. Of course you can buy options, or sell puts, or do whatever you like according to your own style. We just supply the charts and the technique. We just help you visually find the true trend because moving averages and other technical techniques don’t give you price trajectory projections or any other methods we know of. Look at the previous BP post and the current BP stock price charts to understand what I mean.

In fact, if I’m bullish on the market I only get into shares that just got a BUY signal on a MACD or some other trend following system (a trend line break, Fisher crossover, etc.) and after checking with the software you get upon a subscription, confirm that the seasonals are pointing up. Not just UP … I want the chart significantly UP steep, Steep, STEEP. I want to be stacking all the odds in my favor and want to invest in stocks that I expect a big bull run on.

So day traders, who usually just trade momentum and volume breakouts, can use our newsletters and software to have an idea what direction to trade, which is a way to further stack the odds in their favor.

Does this work? Not always (nothing always works), but often in spades! And if you’re trading options, this is one of the best things you’ll ever find in your trading career for risk managed set-ups.

Forget about the BP stock price, because British Petroleum is simply a controversial stock where no forecasting/projection techniques should work (except ours, of course, which you can come to count on month after month even with bear markets and high volatility environments), and I’m using it to grab your attention and illustrate how I trade using Factor Seasonals. You’ll have your own technique once you have our newsletter and software tool in your hands. Just look at the picture of the BP stock price and imagine this for hundreds of shares. Tell me you can’t figure out how to use this inside information!

Every night I scan the NYSE and NASDAQ list for stocks that just had a MACD trigger, either up or down. Then I put those stocks through my seasonal program (you get a mini-version of the program when you subscribe to our Seasonal Cash Flow Trader Package ) to see if the seasonal trends are also confirming a near term UP or DOWN scenario that matches the signal.

If not I PASS because I want to make money, and making money means managing your risks and stacking the odds in your favor. I want double whammies when I’m risking my money. Countless times what looks like a breakout is a false whipsaw that the seasonal charts screen out for you.

That’s it in a nutshell. That’s how I trade, and you can see a great example of an unpredictable stock becoming somewhat predictable using our proprietary Factor Seasonal approach. That happens a lot with the Factor Seasonal approach, and it’s how I make my money. The BP stock market example illustrates the technique. I threw in Apple Computer to show another way of navigating those trading waters. Every month the predictions change, shifting forwards or backwards until they converge with reality, and that’s why a monthly subscription is so valuable to you.

So here’s a Special, Limited Time only offer. For a limited time only we are introducing the Factor Seasonal approach to the world, so we are bundling our NASDAQ newsletter of seasonal analysis projection charts, our S&P100 newsletter and Dow Jones newsletter together WITH a complimentary boiled down version of our software so you can do this on your own. We’re offering a tremendous price discount but will raise the price significantly right after we’re done with this introductory offer. You can find the deal at Seasonal Cash Flow Trader Package. If you like what you see and can imagine yourself scanning a chart book of upcoming seasonal patterns every month, and tapping the stock symbol into a piece of software that will pull up a rudimentary projection chart, then we’re here for you.

Be sure to take us up on our introductory offer while it lasts…I suggest you examine the BP stock price charts to once understand what this method is all about and if you agree that it makes sense to go with the trend and bet on bullish seasonals when the market goes up and bearish seasonals when it goes down, then we’re for you.

No doubt about it in our minds – 2011 will see an intensifying of the recession we’re still in.

As to President Obama, he looks great and can confidently read from a teleprompter standing tall, but speech after speech is just empty talk. The Afghanistan war was a no-winner from the start as any historian will tell you that no nation has been able to conquer and pacify Afghanistan. President Obama’s one big success – a medical health insurance plan is likely to add costs on top of a besieged public when fully instituted. All this chaos started from a housing bubble, and a housing bubble originated with from loan crazy banks who decided it was a great idea to make loans that weren’t great because they could sell them and not have to keep them on the books. Wall Street went along with it, no one said anything about the lack of ethics and morals beneath this strategy (because they would have been relieved of their positions), and these were the guys who wrecked the world economy but kept their jobs.

As to the present job market which is suffering from the after-effects of this shock, for every new job there are now six applicants. Construction and housing production, which usually brings up the jobs totals, are down as is consumer spending based on credit. That means commercial real estate is in trouble because fewer people are shopping as freely as before, and so the malls are empty. Because nearly 70% of new jobs are created in small business, the fact that small business cannot borrow doesn’t help either. In terms of the long run again, since there is a lot of competition for job positions, employers can offer lower wages and young people entering the work force today can expect to make less money in their lifetime than previous generations, hence a lower standard of living into the future. Let’s not mention that housing production is at a 50-year low and vacancies and foreclosures are up.
 
So look at the headwinds coming over this next half year to year: (1) a slowdown in the U.S. as the Obama stimulus package fades, housing remains weak, commercial property is hurting as people are not spending, local and state governments will have to reduce wages, layoff workers and raise taxes, … sustainable jobs are not there because there’s no driver (2) austerity measures take hold in Europe, cutting wages and spending (3) China looks to dampen its own housing bubble, and is starting to face wage pressures, too.

Back to the U.S. … remember that ultimately it all comes down to jobs; it’s not much more complicated than that. Without a jobs recovery, there will be no consumer spending recovery (especially with declining wages), and without a return to previous consumer spending patterns (which is unlikely now that consumers are skittish about credit card debt), there’s little reason to be excited about the economy and thus the stock market. You can expect to see yet more vacancies at U.S. shopping centers and malls empty of fat wallet foot traffic. Of course, let’s not talk about the BP oil spill and its effect on businesses either. 

The bottom line is, if you look at the market over the last ten years: you’re at a loss. That’s the bottom line. A few greats, such as Tom Bogle (Vanguard funds)  warned several years ago that we have to lower our expectations.  We had a very poor decade in the 1970s; you know, where the real return on stocks was probably 1 percent per year or something like that. The 80’s and 90’s spoiled us with double digit real returns.  I once did a study of the long term gains of dynastic families such as the Vanderbilts, Rockefellers and Krupps of Germany. Their long run rate of return was 7-8% per annum. That’s all. You cannot expect that into the near future. Not at all.

The only solution for investors is either to put your money in bonds, paying zilch, or be nimble to trade in and out, going with sure things or lined up as much as possible.

Enter the era of the factor seasonal trader.

I want safer buys and sells. When the market is going down, find me shares where the stocks seasonally get hit as well because those economics are bound to be double down, and with volatility and risk rising, I want the safest trades and trends possible. Same for the bullish side — if it’s a bull market, put me in stocks where the seasonal normally heads upwards and the stock is following that seasonal, showing that earnings are following along with expectations for this cycle. That’s the seasonal trader approach.

If you just want to buy low and sell high, just use our chart books to determine when stocks normally have a high or low for the year. Once again, if a stock isn’t listed, that means none of the techniques that we use is able to match the past with high reliability, so we don’t make a projection. That’s common sense…who wants to mislead you? 

That’s the Factor Seasonal Approach.

All I do is scan my watchlists for MACD signals, pop the stocks that trigger into my trusty factor seasonal program (you get a boiled down version of the program for PCs with a subscription to our Seasonal Cash Flow Super Package) and then buy or sell, OR EVEN GO MARKET NEUTRAL, accordingly. I can watch stocks via the FusionIQ rating system, Value Line ratings, VectorVest rankings, IBD ratings … and then act accordingly. Makes more sense then what most analysts are doing when forecasting the short term.

Every month you get a list of such stocks, and their charts, in our Factor Seasonal newsletters. But here’s the KICKER. In our newsletters you not only get the best seasonal price projections (because we determine the right number of years to use in the projection charts, which we haven’t done here), but you also get stocks filtered by the fact of whether they do or don’t have a Factor Seasonal chart thats supports the projected price move. In other words, they’re filtered by the fact that their fundamental price behavior in similar types of economic environments ARE SUPPORTING THE PRICE MOVE PROJECTED.

Can’t beat that type of fundamental, inside information. You can pick stocks to buy or sell just from the price charts alone, but when you filter those charts by whether the stock has an underlying fundamental tendency to do the same thing, you’ve got gold.

That’s the Factor Seasonal approach to stock picking. If you’re a day trader or longer term stock picker, you want to have lists of these stocks because they offer the most volatility on the upside and downside. This is where the money is to be made.

Don’t fly blind. If you’re a fund manager or investor, always check for Factor Seasonal support first.

Every month our chart packed newsletters show you, IN PLAIN AND CLEAR PICTURES, the only stocks you need to be watching for the SAFEST bullish and bearish trades because those trends are lined up with the Factor seasonals. No more ritzy expensive financial newsletters with lots of verbiage that don’t make you any money. We’re down to earth and all we care about is trading or investment profits. Just look at the chart forecasts of each stock, and decide whether to get in or stay out.

No one else enables you to do this! No one, nobody, nada, zippo!

You’re bearish? Fine. Minimize your risks and increase your chances of success by only shorting/buying puts on stocks with a negative seasonal trend to boot. If the makret tanks you’ll have two forces working for you — the market’s downward pull and EXTRA downward pressure due to the stock’s declining seasonal tendency. HERE’S THE KICKER: That way if you’re wrong on the market timing because of volatility swings, the stock’s negative tendency will still help you pull through and make money.

It’s all about making money. It’s not abouit having a “vioew of the market” and getting on Yahoo Finance. It’s about stock selection that will make you money. Short term or longer term, this beats anything out there. Cramer can’t do any better than this.

And remember … if a stock isn’t following its seasonal tendency but is ultra bullish in a big way despite the underlying seasonal chart, check the volume for money pouring in because you may have found a ten bagger! (Of course it works onthe flip side, too — what a great way to take the temperature of the patient)

For a bullish stance, invest in those shares that have a bulish tendency this time of year, and are supported by the Factor Seasonals. What could be easier?

Nothing!

That’s why people are turning to the logic of the Factor Seasonal approach to trading and investing.

You’d get an appraisal before you’d buy something expensive, wouldn’t you? That’s what a Factor Seasonal chart is — a clear appraisal of the stock’s projected worth.

Take a look at the best seasonal projection chart, which is showing a possible bottom mid-July (exactly what the Foundation for the Study of Cyles is predicting):

If you want to be a good stock picker, right now the bet is on the downside for the next few days, at the minimum. That’s the best CURRENT forecast that the seasonals can give you. The Factor seasonal charts allow you to make better EWT counts and forecasts than anything else out there. That’s why the Elliottwave guys take their timing cues from us!

Of course with our new free software, which you can grab your hands on by taking advantage of our special offer of the Seasonal Cash Flow System, you can be creating seasonals for any stock you want — and you won’t even need a data feed. You won’t have our full software that we use to create all our factor seasonals, but once you see the stocks we pick in our newsletters, you can keep an eye on them (or any other shares you have) to keep up with the latest market timing.

For instance I just liquidated my portfolio today for a 3% gain on the entire account over the last few days, and I wasn’t anywhere near full invested. I just picked the stocks with the strongest factor seasonal trends upwards, loaded up on those stocks when they crossed my trigger points last week, and then liquidated today when my system triggered again. Without the Factor Seasonal software, I would never have known which shares would be among the best performing.

That’s how I do it, but you can use your own method with our software. Our newsletters do the extensive research to tell you which stocks to watch (you can’t possibly watch 10,000 shares yourself) and then you use whatever timing method you feel the most comfortable with. If you’re an active trader, this is the best way to pick the shares that are not just moving (all stock screens do that) but which ARE LIKELY TO CONTNUE MOVING ON INTO THE NEAR FUTURE. Don’t just bet on momentum alone, bet on the seasonal trend, and the fundamental trend behind the seasonal tend … the factor seasonal trend!

Dow Jones Against its Best Projected Seasonal Pattern

Last Friday many stocks had bullish MACD crossovers. That includes 23 NASDAQ100 stocks and 18 S&P100 stocks.

After passing them through our factor seasonal filters, a smaller subset of stocks was left for consideration. These include USB, GILD, FCX, MS, RTN, DELL, FAST, ERTS, MXIM, GENZ, CELG, GILD. That’s 6 S&P100 stocks and 7 NASDAQ100 stocks. So you can see that the factor seasonal approach really cuts down on trades to look at, and THAT’s VALUABLE!

Of those passing yet a further set of filters, three stocks were left: RTN, FAST and CELG. 41 stocks were reduced to 3 (USB is a semi-possible, which would make 4). Here are the charts:

Raytheon – Aerospace and Defense

Fastenal Company – Materials and Construction”

CELG – Drugs and Biotech

Well, what does that mean for stocks … or for anything that has to do with preserving our capital and making money.The only thing we can do is look at the seasonals, which suggest a fall in the summer months as we have been trumpeting in our newsletters.

We looked at Goldman Sachs previously, so how does Morgan Stanley fare? Let’s look at the factor seasonal charts…

The seasonal chart here suggests that we wait for a MACD upturn for a quick rebound in the stock, perhaps a chance for trading profits. But what about during bear markets?

Although we are expecting a severe downturn in July-August, Morgan usually holds steady during market downturns during that period. If it was a normal weakness we were expecting, the seasonal suggests Morgan would be holding its value and thus a safer BUY than we would consider without having any such information. But sine we are expecting a big drop/weakness in August, this typical chart may not hold.

In any case, you now see the power of seasonals in helping to judge a stock for trading purposes. We offer chart books of past stock performance in ALL sorts of trading environments — bull/bear markets, increasing/decreasing inflation rates, increasing/decreasing interest rates, economic expansions/recession, Democrats/Republicans in office, and so on. They are invaluable for both the Technical analyst doing market timing and fundamental trader ho is focusing on earnings and P/E ratios.