Market Timing Research

Some people are saying that the US market will do better this year than China’s stock market. Frankly, I think that Taiwan, which has started to normalize relations with China, will be the big winner of the three. If China keeps going strong, Taiwan’s inroads will continue. If the US trumps China this year, Taiwan will still plow forward with its moves at business integration.

This funny video just appeared on how the US could get China to revalue its currency overnight, the Yuan (remingbi), if it just imposed punitive duties. I do not believe we would see a rush of factories returning to US shores, however, if this happened. We would see a switch of manufacturing to Vietnam instead and the US, which offsored its capabilities, would not be able to gain very many jobs in return. With globalization we sent those jobs everywhere, South America included.

Nonetheless I do believe that sometime in from 2011 to 2012 the U.S. will finally awaken and push China into a higher negotiated exchange rate. Naturally it will not be the high rate that the US wants, and also it will not save the US … the video speaks the truth about this. China wants to do nothing of the sort because it needs a low remingbi to keep factories churning out orders and people employed. Social unrest is a big potential problem in China, and you can expect many issues like that to hit the forefront of the People’s Congress in 2012.

Sometime in 2011-2012, our contrarian instincts suggest the Yuan, or remingbi as I used to know it when I was in China, will be revalued dramatically. Watch the video and then the seasonal forecasts for the Yuan, FXI and Taiwan ETF — EWT.

Here is the current seasonal chart of the Yuan via the CYB ETF, the FXI and EWT … for the Yuan there is too few years to make any reliable seasonal, and the accuracy fo the FXI prediction is lousy at the moment, but that’s the best we can do …

GE has caught the world’s notice … This past week, GE’s CEO Jeff Immelt gave an optimistic 2011 growth forecast for the firm after so many struggles. The global economic crisis, he said, has helped force GE to get back on track with its core businesses. Immelt confirmed one of our primary thesis points: China will be one of its key areas for growth. You should look at all your stocks and evaluate who is doing what in China, India and Brazil and well as the upcoming N-11 countries and African frontier markets, for these are the future. Long term grwoth and investment opportunities are in THESE markets, not the US.

Buffett and GE go back a long way because in the 2008 market collapse Buffett provided $3 billion to GE in return for preferred stock and warrants to buy $3 billion in GE common shares. GE’s stock hasn’t shown a dramatic recovery, and now the company is reporting that 2011 finally looks rosy. But as to the stock price…check the seasonals.

This does not mean that this will come true because a roraring bull can throw all these projections aside. However, you should be ready. Furthermore, whatever happens, Spring will definitely be a great time to pick up shares if the seasonal holds true. That’s what seasonals help you predict.

Our Dow Jones newsletter just went out and inside was a tiny analysis on the Semiconductor sector.

Semiconductor stocks have made a killing since September this year. I recently lightened my positions because of the following chart, and will be looking to re-enter at some corrective lows either this month or January to take advantage of a dual seasonal/cycles top expected in March 2011.

Yes, both seasonals and cycles, which are independent of each other as long as the cycles lengths used in analysis are substantially different than 365 days, suggest a March high. But there are several corrections between now and then, and the current dip is right along with the seasonals, and helped me preserve my profits.

Let’s take a look at the SOX seasonal chart (you can play this with ultra-leveraged SOXL):

There’s been a lot of talk recently about trading Brazil’s ETF and how difficult it is getting as a fundamental macro play. The ETF has dropped recently, but this is perfectly in line with the EWZ seasonals and cycles.

Here is our best forecast:

This list is priceless….if you have our seasonal charts to see whether the trend is large enough and long enough to risk or not. But I’ve marked the stocks to watch with asterisks!

So this is a list of the typical seasonal top dates for various stocks from the NASDAQ100 and S&P100 based on analysis from our seasonal analysis charting software. Naturally the dates can be shifted forwards and backwards several days each and would change if the market changed dramatically as well.

You also have to confirm any triggers with price trend indicators and our seasonal program, too, which you get with our Super Seasonal Cash Flow Trader’s package. For instance, some people are calling for a market top September 7-8, or September 13-14-15, and September 23. So many possibilities. I personally think September 14 will be the important date though I will carefully watch the 7-8 period.

Enjoy – And as I always sign the end of our newsletters, may favorable trade winds be with you.

MO – Sept 10-15
T – Sept 30
BNY – Sept 10-15
CVS – Sept 10-13-15 **
HD – Sept 13 **
LOW – Sept 13
WY – Sept 15, 24, 29-30 **
BAX – Sept 14-20 **
DD – Sept 13 **
FDX – Sept 16 **
HAL – Sept 9-13 **
MON – Sept 8, 20 **
TGT – Sept 13, 16 **
AMAT – Sept 10 **
ESRX – Sept 16, 29 **
GENZ – Sept 13-16
MCHP – Sept 8-13 **
NVDA – Sept 20
ROST – Sept 15
ALTR – Sept 20-22 **
APOL – Sept 9 **
CHKP – Sept 13, 30
EXPD – Sept 14
FISV – Sept 13-15 **
FLEX – Sept 9-10 **
FLIR – Sept 17 **
IACI – Spet 15 **
LLTC – Sept 13-15 **
LBTYA – Sept 13-16 **
MRVL – Sept 8
PCAR – Sept 3 **
URBN – Sept 15
WYNN – Sept 17, 21, 24 **

And now, some support dates …

CL – Sept 22
SO – Sept 21-23
CVX – Sept 23
ETR – Sept 23
MRK – Sept 30
MICC – Sept 15
PAYX – Sept 23, October 7

DO NOT FIXATE ON THESE DATES.

They are indications from the seasonal charts. You must be adaptive and confirm price changes with indicators before something becomes a stock pick. However, now you have the BEST, the absolute best predictions possible at this moment. If the market changes severely, naturally these dates will change as well because we will select different years from our past history bin to create our forecast.

But now you know the type of information you can mine from our newsletters. Not a lot of stocks to watch out of 200! And if you look at the seasonal charts, you whittle this list down even further.

Now that’s the power of the Factor Seasonal charts!

Fortune magazine just ran a short article on Home Depot (HD), pointing out that hurricane season is coming. Right about now Home Depot usually makes a pop upwards in price, but we have a problem. And this problem is why we always tell people you must, you absolutely must look at the Factor Seasonals for a stock before you invest or trade because they will show how a stock acts in all sorts of environments.

But first, the best seasonal price forecast or projection chart for HD going forwards from this moment in time:

Right now, the Home Depot price behavior has most closely matched what it does during Bear Markets. Yes, Bear Markets. And with that knowledge, we can look at our Bull-Bear market Factor Seasonal chart of HD and see that the point of recognition is September 13. That’s when the stock possibly plummets. When you have your own seasonal software from our Super Seasonal Cash Flow Traders package, you can create this type of chart to determine this date exactly.

So how do you trade this? I wouldn’t. I simply look for the stocks where I have a much better certainty of outcome because all the factors are aligned. Every month I produce analysis for 100 stocks in each newseltter and ALWAYS find great trades. Home Depot has too much risk for me because I look for much better odds.

Oh, you mean you WANT to trade Home Depot, so you’re asking what to do? Well, come September 13 I might buy puts OR sell calls in a vertical credit spread. That’s me — it’s not a recommendation to you. Right now I might sell puts in a vertical spread as well…that’s me once again, not a recommendation. Buy for a pop? Too risky for me because of time cycles for the Dow Jones (of which Home Depot is a member) peaking the first week of September. It might go up but I just don’t like trades that short in time because it doesn’t give me enough time room for the seasonal to prove out, and with today’s volatility, I want all the factors in my favor. That’s why I go with the newsletter spotted set-ups.

Anyway, that’s how I do it. Doing it sometimes means “I don’t”. That doesn’t mean HD won’t go up or make money, just that the newsletter offers far better setups in my opinion.

Remember, check the Factor Seasonal charts before trading or longer term investing.

This is the current best forecast of the Dow Jones Industrial Average using the best seasonal technology and methods available. Remember this is seasonals, not cycles. Actually the forecast is not very good for the simple reason that the upper right hand corner shows — the figure is less than 70%, so it’s not very accurate or trustworthy for going forwards.

However, some readers wanted to see this projection so here it is, and it matches with the cycles projections from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles which still suggests some type of interim top (perhaps at a lower level) in September, and then a collapse.

There’s been a lot of interest lately in international mutual funds. I’m starting to see quite a few investment advisors and financial newsletter analysts telling their clients to go overseas to help dampen their exposure to US stocks and the US economy that is in the doldrums. Usually they recommend the BRICs and various international ETFs with international exposure. However, I recently came across this list of top international funds, and decided to do some analysis for you.

The following top funds, rated #1 by Zachs, show how they have typically performed when the US was in a recession or the expansion phase of the business cycle.

The five funds include:

Sentinel International Equity A (SWRLX)
Laudus International MarketMasters (SWOIX)
Fidelity International Discovery (FIGRX)
Scout International (UMBWX)
Artio International Equity A (BJBIX)

On August 3 we posted a sample of 4 stock picks — two bullish stocks and 2 bearish stocks — from the August S&P100 and NASDAQ100 newsletters that were just released.

Well yesterday the Dow Jones newsletter was released (we release it in the middle of the month so that you can get some updates for the big Dow stocks without having to wait until the 1st of every month), so I decided to go back in and see what happened to those shares.

Part of the reason was because a subscriber wrote in the following:

I just wanted to give you a quick update on my progress and first experience with the MTR software. As you may recall, I recently signed up with MTR a few weeks ago, but was only recently able to begin using the software last week due to that email glitch which we have fixed. (thanks again for fixing that by the way). Using a combination of the software, the August newsletters, economic conditions, jobs and Fed data etc… I was able to target 2 really great trading opportunities for August. The first was JBHT and the second was RYAAY. I bought puts on both companies on Friday August 6th (5 days ago) and had planned on holding them over the next few weeks. I decided to go ahead and lock in a 78% gain as the old adage “Pigs get slaughtered” still holds true. I have already paid for my first year’s MTR subscription ! I just wanted to say thanks to you and Bill for what you guys are doing. I told Bill over the phone that I believe in MTR, and what you guys are doing. My belief has only been reinforced now, and my confidence strengthened. I been finding not only the software extremely helpful, but the newsletters and ESPECIALLY the Blogs as well. I look forward to the Blogs every day as I have the RSS feed going directly to my gmail account. I find the Blogs especially helpful because Bill really takes the time to explain not only what he looks for, but how he executes his trades. I can also tell by the way he presents his thoughts and ideas, that he is truly convicted and believes wholeheartedly in these concepts. He is genuine and sincere in his videos. The videos, the Blogs, the newsletters, the software…it’s all invaluable ! It’s the “icing on the cake” that I’ve been searching for to enhance my trading techniques. Thank you again, Will and Bill (and anyone else behind the scenes) for your hard work and dedication to MTR. I know it must require a tremendous amount of time, work, dedication and commitment to continuously produce quality results. I will remain a member of MTR as long as it is around.

- Matt McDonnell

Since he was trading the JBHT and RYAAY predictions from our newsletter, let’s analyze those shares to see how they performed. By no means is his case indicative of typical results, results you can expect, nor do we promise you the same type of experience, that you can duplicate such results, or profits using our newsletter or the accuracy of our newsletter. All our SEC, FTC and other disclaimers apply.

However, we have to use this opportunity (since our DJIA newsltter was just released) to analyze all four of these shares to show you once again how to use our newsletter and the many trading techniques that can benefit by it. Usually you have to wait more than a month for results but this is a good time because we’re in the middle of a marekt turn. So watch this video, and then you can go back to our August 3 blog video posting to see what we had predicted because it shows the actual pages from the Factor Seasonal newsletters that predate this.

Sometimes we’re wrong, but we alwasy protect ourselves with MACD or Fisher trigger stops and we’re never afraid to make predictions with our technique. If you are a trader, we believe we offer the most accurate methodology out there to get a future forecast of short and long term stock trends.