Market Timing Research

Many folks have asked us about the Macro millionaire Coaching Program. We give it two thumbs up. In fact, we suggest you take our seasonal software and run the macro trades through them first to see whether the timing can be improved or not. Ins ome cases we’ve found we can improve the trade greatly.

As we always say, you must use some method to pick the trades, and use the seasonal method, when appropriate to refine the timing. You can be a technical trader and just trade off the seasonals alone, but when you have a fundamental macro bias, and the seasonals align, you have a perfect storm of trend following profits in store.

John Thomas, the Macro Millionaire expert of global macro hedge fund trading trends, has just released a new video you might want to watch Six Major Trends for 2011 That Will Make You Rich or Miserable

If you are interested in the Macro Millionaire Coaching Program, click on this link to find out more information here including his track record, experience qualifications, world views, how to trade like a hedge fund, and so forth: ==> Macro Millionaire Coaching Program

Some people are saying that the US market will do better this year than China’s stock market. Frankly, I think that Taiwan, which has started to normalize relations with China, will be the big winner of the three. If China keeps going strong, Taiwan’s inroads will continue. If the US trumps China this year, Taiwan will still plow forward with its moves at business integration.

This funny video just appeared on how the US could get China to revalue its currency overnight, the Yuan (remingbi), if it just imposed punitive duties. I do not believe we would see a rush of factories returning to US shores, however, if this happened. We would see a switch of manufacturing to Vietnam instead and the US, which offsored its capabilities, would not be able to gain very many jobs in return. With globalization we sent those jobs everywhere, South America included.

Nonetheless I do believe that sometime in from 2011 to 2012 the U.S. will finally awaken and push China into a higher negotiated exchange rate. Naturally it will not be the high rate that the US wants, and also it will not save the US … the video speaks the truth about this. China wants to do nothing of the sort because it needs a low remingbi to keep factories churning out orders and people employed. Social unrest is a big potential problem in China, and you can expect many issues like that to hit the forefront of the People’s Congress in 2012.

Sometime in 2011-2012, our contrarian instincts suggest the Yuan, or remingbi as I used to know it when I was in China, will be revalued dramatically. Watch the video and then the seasonal forecasts for the Yuan, FXI and Taiwan ETF — EWT.

Here is the current seasonal chart of the Yuan via the CYB ETF, the FXI and EWT … for the Yuan there is too few years to make any reliable seasonal, and the accuracy fo the FXI prediction is lousy at the moment, but that’s the best we can do …

If you think the recession will continue into 2011, and if you want to preserve your wealth and even get richer, this may be the most important article you read all year.

You probably already know that we expect inflation to roar in 2011 to 2013 because of QE2. The stock market may even collapse, too, though the cycles show that possibility happening only near mid-2011. In any case, to make money you have to know where all the smart money goes, and the smart money bets on macro world trends. It bets big time on those trends, so what you are about to see is the best synopsis of those trends not just for next year but for 10 years into the future. This information might help you retire if you play it right. We always take those trends, put the seasonals on top of them, and then have perfect entry points even better than the Wall Street guys.

Already commodity prices have risen this year but the Fed won’t recognize this because it isn’t “core inflation.” Furthermore, the secular bull market in commodities has already made a lot of people rich, such as Jimmy Rogers who we often cite, and there are certain stocks and ETFs we mention in our newsletters that take advantage of these trends. In any case, these are people who put their own money on the line instead of government officials who have been wrong about every major financial bubble so far.

In the last five months alone, people have made up to 337% on commodity related trades, such as rare earths and strategic metals (see our November issue), WITHOUT even using options or leverage of any kind by betting on inflationary commodity price rises. This is where the money is right now. Today, I have a killer video showing you exactly where to find the highest returns:

How to Get Rich in 2011 Using the Macro View Video

It’s by John Thomas. He runs one of the hottest hedge funds in the world right now. He’s breaking with Wall Street tradition and actually helping main street traders make serious money. He’s published 49 free trade recommendations in the last 5 months. 48 have been winners. John is not your average trader, either. Wall Street Titans like Paul Tudor Jones and George Soros have hired him to consult with their hedge funds. He founded Wall Street’s first-ever dedicated international hedge-fund. And right now, today, he’s one of the top-performing hedge fund traders in the world, based on performance.

This video he put together for traders like you is getting amazingly positive feedback. Check it out now because it explains what you can expect to see in the world over the next few years, and where the “Vampire Squid” Goldman Sachs and other large firms are going to be making their monies. It is purely educational so you need to know this info to preserve your money and make money. It’s not in cd interest rates, that’s for sure. The big deal is that this information, WHEN COMBINED WITH SEASONAL ANALYSIS PRODUCES KILLER TRADES. You always wanted to know what stocks or instruments to trade, and now you’ll know:

How to Get Rich in 2011 Using the Macro View Video

In this video, he reveals: * The 3 hottest stock markets in the world * The specific commodity sectors where you can make the most money * Which little known markets are up 100% in 12 months – with bigger moves still ahead * Hard asset primer for traders * Doomed commodities to avoid like the plague * And much, much more

I recommend you watch it now if you are interested in preserving your wealth and making it grow through the Great Recession 2011. It’s 100% free and 100% content. No sales pitch.

How to Get Rich in 2011 Using the Macro View Video

This is the best advice we can give you for making money over the long term. Find out where the hedge funds will put their money, and ride that wave of cash to profits. Even during the 2011 recession you can get wealthier, and this explains how to do it. Probably the best expert we have talked about all year. When you put seasonal entry points and triggers on top of information like this it is just killer, Killer, KILLER.

And so the first month of QE2 is over with interest rates rising a bit and the stock market dropping for the month. However, in all likelihood QE2 will help raise the markets just a little bit more, and seasonals suggest that December will be an upwards month as good news floods in about internet sales and the solution of other worldwide crises.

Cycles analyst Charles Nenner of the Charles Nenner Research Institute had predicted that December would be a short term cycles low in the stock market, but it may be that today’s rally shows the kick-off has started earlier. Nenner also feels that we will see a collapse in equity prices in mid-2011, possibly due to deflationary forces or other reasons, and then eventually DOW 5000. Elliottwave technician Robert Prechter ultimately sees DOW 1000.

We don’t have any crystal balls but do agree that the markets will be testing the 2008-2009 lows next year, with a bottom in either 2012 or 2015.

But what does that mean for trading? Nothing at all using our methods. We pick stocks that have a fundamental story, apply the seasonals on top of them, and then make judicious trades. Let me provide an example to show you what I’m talking about, but first the S&P500 forecast:

Here’s what I mean about stories…

Many macro players are citing the fact that world growth will deplete our resources, and therefore there will be demand for more COAL and NUCLEAR energy. Okay, let’s check the seasonals for PKOL, a global coal ETF and NLR, a nuclear power ETF. We have a fundamental view, we want to get in, but we are worried about the timing. Should we get in now?

Let’s do our research …

Form these two charts, you can see that there is not a lot of past history to build accurate seasonals to go on. With the little data we have, December looks like it could see a continuation of the push upwards, but then there may be a drop in prices come January. If you are a short term trader you have the potential of a December pop, if it’s in your outlook, but for a long term investor you might want to wait and see whether there is a January correction so you can get itno a position (or add to one).

Since we would be long term players here if we are following long term fundamental analysis, we would be looking to get in on a drawback, so the charts would behoove you to wait. If we had 5 years of data we would be able to be more definitive but this is the best we can do with so little data.

If you had a lot of data you’d say: “I’m bullish on Stock XYZ. The reasons are –, — and –. I want to get in. Let me see if the seasonal says now is a good time or whether I should wait.” If you are already in, late December I would raise my stops or possibly sell calls. It would depend on the strategies you are used to using and your view of the market at that point in time.

So even though there are only two years of data, from so little seasonal data you still get an inkling as to how to use seasonals to help with your trading and investing. But once again, you want 5 years of data or more.

If you are following some options hotline, ALWAYS screen the trade past the seasonals and I’m sure you’ll cut down on your losers and find better places to take profits on parts of your position. You could make a living trading options off the seasonals and some momentum indicator alone that triggered trades to look at. This is just another way for using seasonal analysis to cut your risks.

There’s been a lot of talk recently about trading Brazil’s ETF and how difficult it is getting as a fundamental macro play. The ETF has dropped recently, but this is perfectly in line with the EWZ seasonals and cycles.

Here is our best forecast:

This is one of the funniest videos we have seen on QE2, “the Bernanke” and the Fed’s policy of inflation, during a jobs-tight “I don’t have enough money and inflation makes it worse” recession, in order to stimulate the economy.

Our advice is the same: the Fed will stimulate and stimulate by lowering interest rates, but it will not stimulate the economy. It is pushing on a string because the jobs and industries are gone. Firms and people, however, will seek yield and seeking yield they will drive up the price of speculative assets. However, when the liquidity is withdrawn, we will have another CRASH again … just like the Dot.com bubble, real estate bubble, subprime mess, and so on.

We are in a “deleveraging” economy where we will keep reducing our debts and our borrowing (i.e. credit card usage), no matter how cheap money gets. A new frugality has set in during this Great Recession, reminescent of what happened during the Great Depression. Low interest rates will not change that behavioral pattern, and by the way, they won’t make the banks lend. The Fed with QE2 is trying to create additional reserves that banks then have to lend but if the banks don’t lend, which they are not doing and not likely to do, we are right back where we started.

In temrs of the John Q public, remember that home equity loans have dried up because housing prices have stopped appreciating and started falling, and will fall even moreso. It is now the era of renters. Consumers, worried about jobs and the economy, are looking for ways to reduce their debts rather than borrow more money.

However, for active traders we have the solution. Ride that liquidity wave by trading the stocks whose seasonals are in line with that bullishness and which, by the nature of the companies itself, will benefit from increased foriegn sales (due to a declining dollar), inflation and so forth. Caterpillar is a perfect example!

But I digress … here is that funny video I promised:

Yahoo Finance recently had an article listing the favorite stocks of multi-millionaires and billionaires. These stocks include Warren Buffett’s Bershire Hathaway (BRK-A), the Fairholme Fund (FAIRX) and the following:

Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE: BAM): Brookfield is a Canadian asset manager that owns and operates real infrastructure and property assets.

Leucadia National (NYSE: LUK): Leucadia is a diversified holding company with interests in telecommunications, manufacturing, oil and gas drilling and gaming.

Loews (NYSE: L): Loews’ owns three publicly traded subsidiaries in insurance, oil and gas drilling and gas pipelines.

Markel (NYSE: MKL): Specialty insurer is similar to Berkshire Hathaway.

I thought it would be interesting to give you the best seasonal stock chart projections at this moment. Sure these are value players that engage in fundamental analysis, but you can use seasonal analysis on top of them to know when to trade. Remember that if the stock doesn’t have a 70% correlation to the forecasting mechanims, then we wouldn’t bother to list it in our newsletter if we were covering it, so you only trade it according to our charts when it’s matching the seasonals with accuracy, meaning it’s trading according to its typical pattern. That’s what we call running after the safe profits (if there is such a thing) — you’re bullish, so you pick a value stock to buy that tends to go up, and you invest in it when its seasonal trend is pointing up too (and the factor seasonal when that cinches it).

And if you’re a value investor or use a value strategy for part of your portfolio read my article on How to combine value investing with seasonal analysis

Even though some of these projection charts aren’t showing our minimum 70% correlation, I’m showing you the best forecast possible just because I wanted to give you something to think about and possibly a way to make money. Every month our newsletters show JUST the stocks following their seasonals with high reliability and predictability so you can trade or invest with them. That’s how we make our money because we believe that our “secret sauce” formula computes the seasonals correctly.

Here are the charts…