Market Timing Research

This is one of the funniest videos we have seen on QE2, “the Bernanke” and the Fed’s policy of inflation, during a jobs-tight “I don’t have enough money and inflation makes it worse” recession, in order to stimulate the economy.

Our advice is the same: the Fed will stimulate and stimulate by lowering interest rates, but it will not stimulate the economy. It is pushing on a string because the jobs and industries are gone. Firms and people, however, will seek yield and seeking yield they will drive up the price of speculative assets. However, when the liquidity is withdrawn, we will have another CRASH again … just like the Dot.com bubble, real estate bubble, subprime mess, and so on.

We are in a “deleveraging” economy where we will keep reducing our debts and our borrowing (i.e. credit card usage), no matter how cheap money gets. A new frugality has set in during this Great Recession, reminescent of what happened during the Great Depression. Low interest rates will not change that behavioral pattern, and by the way, they won’t make the banks lend. The Fed with QE2 is trying to create additional reserves that banks then have to lend but if the banks don’t lend, which they are not doing and not likely to do, we are right back where we started.

In temrs of the John Q public, remember that home equity loans have dried up because housing prices have stopped appreciating and started falling, and will fall even moreso. It is now the era of renters. Consumers, worried about jobs and the economy, are looking for ways to reduce their debts rather than borrow more money.

However, for active traders we have the solution. Ride that liquidity wave by trading the stocks whose seasonals are in line with that bullishness and which, by the nature of the companies itself, will benefit from increased foriegn sales (due to a declining dollar), inflation and so forth. Caterpillar is a perfect example!

But I digress … here is that funny video I promised:

This list is priceless….if you have our seasonal charts to see whether the trend is large enough and long enough to risk or not. But I’ve marked the stocks to watch with asterisks!

So this is a list of the typical seasonal top dates for various stocks from the NASDAQ100 and S&P100 based on analysis from our seasonal analysis charting software. Naturally the dates can be shifted forwards and backwards several days each and would change if the market changed dramatically as well.

You also have to confirm any triggers with price trend indicators and our seasonal program, too, which you get with our Super Seasonal Cash Flow Trader’s package. For instance, some people are calling for a market top September 7-8, or September 13-14-15, and September 23. So many possibilities. I personally think September 14 will be the important date though I will carefully watch the 7-8 period.

Enjoy – And as I always sign the end of our newsletters, may favorable trade winds be with you.

MO – Sept 10-15
T – Sept 30
BNY – Sept 10-15
CVS – Sept 10-13-15 **
HD – Sept 13 **
LOW – Sept 13
WY – Sept 15, 24, 29-30 **
BAX – Sept 14-20 **
DD – Sept 13 **
FDX – Sept 16 **
HAL – Sept 9-13 **
MON – Sept 8, 20 **
TGT – Sept 13, 16 **
AMAT – Sept 10 **
ESRX – Sept 16, 29 **
GENZ – Sept 13-16
MCHP – Sept 8-13 **
NVDA – Sept 20
ROST – Sept 15
ALTR – Sept 20-22 **
APOL – Sept 9 **
CHKP – Sept 13, 30
EXPD – Sept 14
FISV – Sept 13-15 **
FLEX – Sept 9-10 **
FLIR – Sept 17 **
IACI – Spet 15 **
LLTC – Sept 13-15 **
LBTYA – Sept 13-16 **
MRVL – Sept 8
PCAR – Sept 3 **
URBN – Sept 15
WYNN – Sept 17, 21, 24 **

And now, some support dates …

CL – Sept 22
SO – Sept 21-23
CVX – Sept 23
ETR – Sept 23
MRK – Sept 30
MICC – Sept 15
PAYX – Sept 23, October 7

DO NOT FIXATE ON THESE DATES.

They are indications from the seasonal charts. You must be adaptive and confirm price changes with indicators before something becomes a stock pick. However, now you have the BEST, the absolute best predictions possible at this moment. If the market changes severely, naturally these dates will change as well because we will select different years from our past history bin to create our forecast.

But now you know the type of information you can mine from our newsletters. Not a lot of stocks to watch out of 200! And if you look at the seasonal charts, you whittle this list down even further.

Now that’s the power of the Factor Seasonal charts!

Last month we had a real hit (and great success in accuracy) showing some stock forecasts like RYAAY which followed their seasonal projections right in line with expectations. Well our NASDAQ100 newsletter was released August 28 — a few days early this month — to allow traders to get in some early trading since a lot of good patterns were expected to develop right around September 1.

A few days have passed, so let’s look at just three sample forecasts for YHOO, SBUX and PDCO right out of the newsletter, though of course the newsletter (and our S&P100 newsletter) have many more great trades inside, especially since we are waiting for mid-month highs to short a number of stocks or sell calls or buy puts.

As always, we are NOT RECOMMENDING any particular trade or trading strategy, nor saying these forecasts will come true, or guaranteeing you will make money with our newsletter, nor rendering trading advice, nor one of 1,000 different things our lawyers tell us to mention. Our normal disclaimers apply, and you are hereby noticed to read those disclaimers.

That legal gobbely-gook being said, here are the seasonal analysis forecasts for 3 sample stocks from the latest NASDAQ100 newsletter, and you can see how the shares are already following very clear expectations.

Personally I expect stock reversals for many shares starting around September 7-8 and 14-15, so I have a close stop on my own trades. I chose not to even show the bearish trades yet since the best are yet to come, so there’s still time to subscribe and get those.

The whole point is that you can use these Factor Seasonal chart projections, in conjunction with normal technical analysis, to buy/sell stocks and buy/sell options. I particularly like writing vertical credit spreads since with the mathematics available from the ThinkOrSwim platform, we can lower our risks tremendously picking the right strike price and expiration that are likely to collect premium more safely. The newsletters give the timing and direction, and the ThinkorSwim platform gives the math.

I hope to offer another newsletter on this trading strategy in a few months time after we get all the details worked out for this yet another trading strategy possible using our factor seasonal analysis.

Until then, if you already trade options, then watch this video of projections and think about what YOU WOULD DO if you had this information that you could use with your own trading system …

Remember, every month we analyze 100 different stocks in our NASDAQ100 and S&P100 newsletters. Mid-month we release the DJIA newsletter, which follows the most optioned big cap stocks. If you are an active trader or investor, this is the one service that provides projections whereas everyone else just offers opinions. Our best offer is the Seasonal Cash Flow Trader package whose price is rising soon.

Fortune magazine just ran a short article on Home Depot (HD), pointing out that hurricane season is coming. Right about now Home Depot usually makes a pop upwards in price, but we have a problem. And this problem is why we always tell people you must, you absolutely must look at the Factor Seasonals for a stock before you invest or trade because they will show how a stock acts in all sorts of environments.

But first, the best seasonal price forecast or projection chart for HD going forwards from this moment in time:

Right now, the Home Depot price behavior has most closely matched what it does during Bear Markets. Yes, Bear Markets. And with that knowledge, we can look at our Bull-Bear market Factor Seasonal chart of HD and see that the point of recognition is September 13. That’s when the stock possibly plummets. When you have your own seasonal software from our Super Seasonal Cash Flow Traders package, you can create this type of chart to determine this date exactly.

So how do you trade this? I wouldn’t. I simply look for the stocks where I have a much better certainty of outcome because all the factors are aligned. Every month I produce analysis for 100 stocks in each newseltter and ALWAYS find great trades. Home Depot has too much risk for me because I look for much better odds.

Oh, you mean you WANT to trade Home Depot, so you’re asking what to do? Well, come September 13 I might buy puts OR sell calls in a vertical credit spread. That’s me — it’s not a recommendation to you. Right now I might sell puts in a vertical spread as well…that’s me once again, not a recommendation. Buy for a pop? Too risky for me because of time cycles for the Dow Jones (of which Home Depot is a member) peaking the first week of September. It might go up but I just don’t like trades that short in time because it doesn’t give me enough time room for the seasonal to prove out, and with today’s volatility, I want all the factors in my favor. That’s why I go with the newsletter spotted set-ups.

Anyway, that’s how I do it. Doing it sometimes means “I don’t”. That doesn’t mean HD won’t go up or make money, just that the newsletter offers far better setups in my opinion.

Remember, check the Factor Seasonal charts before trading or longer term investing.

There’s been a lot of interest lately in international mutual funds. I’m starting to see quite a few investment advisors and financial newsletter analysts telling their clients to go overseas to help dampen their exposure to US stocks and the US economy that is in the doldrums. Usually they recommend the BRICs and various international ETFs with international exposure. However, I recently came across this list of top international funds, and decided to do some analysis for you.

The following top funds, rated #1 by Zachs, show how they have typically performed when the US was in a recession or the expansion phase of the business cycle.

The five funds include:

Sentinel International Equity A (SWRLX)
Laudus International MarketMasters (SWOIX)
Fidelity International Discovery (FIGRX)
Scout International (UMBWX)
Artio International Equity A (BJBIX)

On August 3 we posted a sample of 4 stock picks — two bullish stocks and 2 bearish stocks — from the August S&P100 and NASDAQ100 newsletters that were just released.

Well yesterday the Dow Jones newsletter was released (we release it in the middle of the month so that you can get some updates for the big Dow stocks without having to wait until the 1st of every month), so I decided to go back in and see what happened to those shares.

Part of the reason was because a subscriber wrote in the following:

I just wanted to give you a quick update on my progress and first experience with the MTR software. As you may recall, I recently signed up with MTR a few weeks ago, but was only recently able to begin using the software last week due to that email glitch which we have fixed. (thanks again for fixing that by the way). Using a combination of the software, the August newsletters, economic conditions, jobs and Fed data etc… I was able to target 2 really great trading opportunities for August. The first was JBHT and the second was RYAAY. I bought puts on both companies on Friday August 6th (5 days ago) and had planned on holding them over the next few weeks. I decided to go ahead and lock in a 78% gain as the old adage “Pigs get slaughtered” still holds true. I have already paid for my first year’s MTR subscription ! I just wanted to say thanks to you and Bill for what you guys are doing. I told Bill over the phone that I believe in MTR, and what you guys are doing. My belief has only been reinforced now, and my confidence strengthened. I been finding not only the software extremely helpful, but the newsletters and ESPECIALLY the Blogs as well. I look forward to the Blogs every day as I have the RSS feed going directly to my gmail account. I find the Blogs especially helpful because Bill really takes the time to explain not only what he looks for, but how he executes his trades. I can also tell by the way he presents his thoughts and ideas, that he is truly convicted and believes wholeheartedly in these concepts. He is genuine and sincere in his videos. The videos, the Blogs, the newsletters, the software…it’s all invaluable ! It’s the “icing on the cake” that I’ve been searching for to enhance my trading techniques. Thank you again, Will and Bill (and anyone else behind the scenes) for your hard work and dedication to MTR. I know it must require a tremendous amount of time, work, dedication and commitment to continuously produce quality results. I will remain a member of MTR as long as it is around.

- Matt McDonnell

Since he was trading the JBHT and RYAAY predictions from our newsletter, let’s analyze those shares to see how they performed. By no means is his case indicative of typical results, results you can expect, nor do we promise you the same type of experience, that you can duplicate such results, or profits using our newsletter or the accuracy of our newsletter. All our SEC, FTC and other disclaimers apply.

However, we have to use this opportunity (since our DJIA newsltter was just released) to analyze all four of these shares to show you once again how to use our newsletter and the many trading techniques that can benefit by it. Usually you have to wait more than a month for results but this is a good time because we’re in the middle of a marekt turn. So watch this video, and then you can go back to our August 3 blog video posting to see what we had predicted because it shows the actual pages from the Factor Seasonal newsletters that predate this.

Sometimes we’re wrong, but we alwasy protect ourselves with MACD or Fisher trigger stops and we’re never afraid to make predictions with our technique. If you are a trader, we believe we offer the most accurate methodology out there to get a future forecast of short and long term stock trends.

I recently read an article about 9 stocks that grew during the recession we’re in. It turns out we can examine 5 of them with our Factor Seasonal program to see what their stock charts look like for business cycle expansions and recessions, as identified by NBIR. Just look at the stock chart and your stock analysis will be done in a few moments.

These 5 stocks are:

F – Ford Motor
WMT – Walmart
AAPL – Apple COmputer
RL – Polo Ralph Lauren
SBUX – Starbucks

After view these charts you can decide for yourself if the stock prices are currently following the Recession or Expansion factor seasonal trend. When a stock isn’t following any pattern closely or what it’s following doesn’t make sense, I stay away. When it seems to be following its typical behavioral pattern from a particular fundamental environment, and that makes sene, then I adjust my investment decisions accordingly.

You decide…

I just completed our August newsletters for the S&P100 and Nasdaq100, and thought this would be a good time to show you how to use our newsletters to pick trades. No other service does this for you.

Now see our legal disclaimers to understand we’re not recommending you buy or sell these stocks, nor are we investment advisors, etc. I’m just showing you how each and every month you get 20-30 great trade possibilites, and usually 8-12 (or more during the early Spring and late Fall) stellar setups. So this is not a recommendation to buy or sell shares, nor is it a guarantee of profits or investment success. It’s sort of silly you have to mention this all the time, but it’s the legalities of the world today, and we suggest you read our full TERMS and DISCLAIMERS.

That said … once you have our Factor Seasonal price charts, you can go long, short, buy puts or calls, or whatever your normal investment or trading strategy happens to be after you find a forecast of interest. When the orange projection line and green ordinary seasonal agree, the trend is strong and worthwhile, the correlation with past price action (in the upper right corner) is 70% or higher, and there’s factor seasonal support, those are shares we like. So we don’t interfere with your strategy or try to teach you to be something you aren’t but simply find those setups for you that fit your trading style. These newsletters are perfect for finding you the trading opportunities you want, even if you are a day trader.

I tend to have an equal number of longs and shorts in volatile environments, but then  nearly 100% long or short when the trend becomes crystal clear. How do I pick my trades? I find perfect seasonal set-ups, like this video shows, wait for price action to trigger a MACD, tendline break, or Fisher transform crossover, and then take a position. Simple as that. Some win, some lose (no method is perfect), but at least you are stacking the odds in your favor.

Watch to see how I do this…the stocks being analyzed (we do the analysis for you so you only have to pick the stocks you want to trade) are MO and  CELG on the bullish side and RYAAY and JBHT on the bearish side.

No I didn’t make a “gazillion dollars.” I only made a small fortune, and I do this month in and month out using the technique in this video.

You might be surprised at how effective trading seasonal trends is in this volatile market environment. I’ve been making a killing over and over in this market – I show you how I’m doing it in this video. And even breakdown my latest Amazon trade.

If you want to try it go ahead and click here to accept the FREE 14-Day Trial of our Factor Seasonal Trends newsletters for the S&P 100, NASDAQ 100, Dow stocks AND you can download a complimentary version of our Seasonal Stock Charting Software as a bonus.

In this month’s NASDAQ newsletter I actually go through and show trade after trade after trade you can make with our newsletter, just like AMZN, and how to use our charts to stay out of stocks if you are a day trader or options player. You can go back and see I’ve been doing this for you all year long even in this difficult environment because this method is perennial. No I can’t promise you’ll make money with this — our disclaimer applies (you know the lawyers make us say that) — but all you have to do is look at the charts, figure out what you would have done with this information, and then decide for yourself. Most newsletters give great interpetations of economics and stocks but no one is bold enough to give you trading and investing charts ahead of time except us. Call us brave or stupid, but I don’t want to take your money if this thing really doesn’t work.

With our big super Seasonal Cash Flow System package, you’ll also get to read our long term cycles synopsis this month in the S&P100 newsletter which will tell you what shares we’re already expecting to buy in October. Yeah, October…stocks we think will run up for 2-3 years!

Only cycles plus Factor Seasonals can allow you to make projections this accurate. Don’t believe me — Check out the website videos from previous years and the past newsletters during your free trial. The pictures do not lie. Once again, I don’t want your money if you cannot make money with this, but with so muchhype out there with people trying to sellyou stuff, why believe me? So we lay it all on the line … our system is more sound than anything else we can dream of, and the latest videos will show it really works at picking stock trades. Stay tuned to watch the new ones that are coming month end.

If you are an investor or trader, absolutely nothing beats this type of seasonal projection information. You can actually see the likely price of the stock ahead of time and wait for a price confirmation to confirm the anticipated trend. It couldn’t be simpler than that.

People charge $5,000 for options newsletters that don’t deliver a fraction of what we offer, but you have to hurry to get into the Seasonal Cash Flow System packagenow because we have a limited time only price and will be raising it to options newsletter prices after the word gets out, at which time you might not be able to afford us and will miss all these setup trades.

That’s why we’re revealing all these trades right now and showing you how to profit from our “Factor Seasonal” projections, which are different from ordinary seasonals. Once we reach our targeted number of introductory subscribers, the doors get closed and the price will be raised so grab the discounted multi-subscription deal to our 3 newsletters, which cover over two hundred stocks, while it’s still available.

Word just came out that the Wall Street banks, including Morgan Stanley, just had 63 straight days of trading profits. That’s right, not a single day in the previous quarter where their traders lost money. We also now hear that the government is going to probe those firms in a possible criminal investigation. Someone is out for blood.

We looked at Goldman Sachs previously, so how does Morgan Stanley fare? Let’s look at the factor seasonal charts…

The seasonal chart here suggests that we wait for a MACD upturn for a quick rebound in the stock, perhaps a chance for trading profits. But what about during bear markets?

Although we are expecting a severe downturn in July-August, Morgan usually holds steady during market downturns during that period. If it was a normal weakness we were expecting, the seasonal suggests Morgan would be holding its value and thus a safer BUY than we would consider without having any such information. But sine we are expecting a big drop/weakness in August, this typical chart may not hold.

In any case, you now see the power of seasonals in helping to judge a stock for trading purposes. We offer chart books of past stock performance in ALL sorts of trading environments — bull/bear markets, increasing/decreasing inflation rates, increasing/decreasing interest rates, economic expansions/recession, Democrats/Republicans in office, and so on. They are invaluable for both the Technical analyst doing market timing and fundamental trader ho is focusing on earnings and P/E ratios.