Here is the latest Dow Jones seasonal forecast, using the latest data. Seems that the market is correlating to a bullish interest rate environment, namely a lowering of interest rates, but also is more correlated to a bear market seasonal than bull market seasonal. Even so, all the factor seasonals show a small blip up right about now that usually lasts for a week or so.
The employment figures coming out Friday may change things, but the market has already pretty much digested the results of the G20 summit in Canada with governments promising to cut budget deficits over the next few years. That can only mean two things: higher taxes and less spending on entitlements. We agree with Krugman–if they go through with this, it will eventually produce a double dip recession at the least.
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is there a seasonal trend of the congress effect?
Adrian Lopez
30 Jun 10 at 12:03 pm
Hi Adrian, yes there are several political seasonals we track:
1. Market performance when the Senate is controlled by Democrats vs. Republicans
2. Market performance when Congress is controlled by Democrats vs. Republicans
3. The 4 year presidential cycle
These are included in the full set of Factor Seasonal Trends for stocks, funds or indexes that we publish here
For more information you can click here to read about political market timing
Hope that helps,
Will
Market Timer
30 Jun 10 at 12:34 pm