Market Timing Research

Here is the latest Dow Jones seasonal forecast, using the latest data. Seems that the market is correlating to a bullish interest rate environment, namely a lowering of interest rates, but also is more correlated to a bear market seasonal than bull market seasonal. Even so, all the factor seasonals show a small blip up right about now that usually lasts for a week or so.

The employment figures coming out Friday may change things, but the market has already pretty much digested the results of the G20 summit in Canada with governments promising to cut budget deficits over the next few years. That can only mean two things: higher taxes and less spending on entitlements. We agree with Krugman–if they go through with this, it will eventually produce a double dip recession at the least.

Here are some more bullish and bearish seasonal charts from last night. If you are bullish you should favor the bullish charts for your watchlist, and if bearish the bearish charts. When it’s a bull market, the bullish seasonals tend to do very well and when it’s a bear market, the bearish seasonals tend to do well. You double stack the odds in your favor when you go with the flow, which is what a Seasonal Cash Flow Trader does.

Every month you get a list of such stocks, and their charts, in our Factor Seasonal newsletters. But here’s the KICKER. In our newsletters you not only get the best seasonal price projections (because we determine the right number of years to use in the projection charts, which we haven’t done here), but you also get stocks filtered by the fact of whether they do or don’t have a Factor Seasonal chart thats supports the projected price move. In other words, they’re filtered by the fact that their fundamental price behavior in similar types of economic environments ARE SUPPORTING THE PRICE MOVE PROJECTED.

Can’t beat that type of fundamental, inside information. You can pick stocks to buy or sell just from the price charts alone, but when you filter those charts by whether the stock has an underlying fundamental tendency to do the same thing, you’ve got gold.

That’s the Factor Seasonal approach to stock picking. If you’re a day trader or longer term stock picker, you want to have lists of these stocks because they offer the most volatility on the upside and downside. This is where the money is to be made.

Don’t fly blind. If you’re a fund manager or investor, always check for Factor Seasonal support first.

Let me show you 6 stocks I went bearish on this morning after Factor Seasonal analysis last night. All I do is scan my watchlists for MACD signals, pop the stocks that trigger into my trusty factor seasonal program (you get a boiled down version of the program for PCs with a subscription to our Seasonal Cash Flow Super Package) and presto:

Every month our chart packed newsletters show you, IN PLAIN AND CLEAR PICTURES, the only stocks you need to be watching for the SAFEST bullish and bearish trades because those trends are lined up with the Factor seasonals. No more ritzy expensive financial newsletters with lots of verbiage that don’t make you any money. We’re down to earth and all we care about is trading or investment profits. Just look at the chart forecasts of each stock, and decide whether to get in or stay out.

No one else enables you to do this! No one, nobody, nada, zippo!

You’re bearish? Fine. Minimize your risks and increase your chances of success by only shorting/buying puts on stocks with a negative seasonal trend to boot. If the makret tanks you’ll have two forces working for you — the market’s downward pull and EXTRA downward pressure due to the stock’s declining seasonal tendency. HERE’S THE KICKER: That way if you’re wrong on the market timing because of volatility swings, the stock’s negative tendency will still help you pull through and make money.

It’s all about making money. It’s not abouit having a “vioew of the market” and getting on Yahoo Finance. It’s about stock selection that will make you money. Short term or longer term, this beats anything out there. Cramer can’t do any better than this.

And remember … if a stock isn’t following its seasonal tendency but is ultra bullish in a big way despite the underlying seasonal chart, check the volume for money pouring in because you may have found a ten bagger! (Of course it works onthe flip side, too — what a great way to take the temperature of the patient)

For a bullish stance, invest in those shares that have a bulish tendency this time of year, and are supported by the Factor Seasonals. What could be easier?

Nothing!

That’s why people are turning to the logic of the Factor Seasonal approach to trading and investing.

You’d get an appraisal before you’d buy something expensive, wouldn’t you? That’s what a Factor Seasonal chart is — a clear appraisal of the stock’s projected worth.

In terms of seasonal timing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now starting to correlate short term to its Bear Market Factor Seasonal. China announces that it will raise its exchange rate, Asian shares go crazy upwards, and the Dow does what???? It falls!

Take a look at the best seasonal projection chart, which is showing a possible bottom mid-July (exactly what the Foundation for the Study of Cyles is predicting):

If you want to be a good stock picker, right now the bet is on the downside for the next few days, at the minimum. That’s the best CURRENT forecast that the seasonals can give you. The Factor seasonal charts allow you to make better EWT counts and forecasts than anything else out there. That’s why the Elliottwave guys take their timing cues from us!

Of course with our new free software, which you can grab your hands on by taking advantage of our special offer of the Seasonal Cash Flow System, you can be creating seasonals for any stock you want — and you won’t even need a data feed. You won’t have our full software that we use to create all our factor seasonals, but once you see the stocks we pick in our newsletters, you can keep an eye on them (or any other shares you have) to keep up with the latest market timing.

For instance I just liquidated my portfolio today for a 3% gain on the entire account over the last few days, and I wasn’t anywhere near full invested. I just picked the stocks with the strongest factor seasonal trends upwards, loaded up on those stocks when they crossed my trigger points last week, and then liquidated today when my system triggered again. Without the Factor Seasonal software, I would never have known which shares would be among the best performing.

That’s how I do it, but you can use your own method with our software. Our newsletters do the extensive research to tell you which stocks to watch (you can’t possibly watch 10,000 shares yourself) and then you use whatever timing method you feel the most comfortable with. If you’re an active trader, this is the best way to pick the shares that are not just moving (all stock screens do that) but which ARE LIKELY TO CONTNUE MOVING ON INTO THE NEAR FUTURE. Don’t just bet on momentum alone, bet on the seasonal trend, and the fundamental trend behind the seasonal tend … the factor seasonal trend!

Yesterday BP prices rose. Why? Look at the seasonal — it’s the traditional turning period. Last night President Obama made a speech that BP must set aside money to pay workers and businesses affected by the disaster. He was very careful in his language – as careful as Ex-President Clinton was in selecting his verb tenses when talking about not having sex with Monica Lewinsky – to ONLY mention “businesses and workers.” Now that the news is out, let’s look at the seasonal so you can follow it …

Here’s the latest Dow Forecast …

Dow Jones Against its Best Projected Seasonal Pattern

Last Friday many stocks had bullish MACD crossovers. That includes 23 NASDAQ100 stocks and 18 S&P100 stocks.

After passing them through our factor seasonal filters, a smaller subset of stocks was left for consideration. These include USB, GILD, FCX, MS, RTN, DELL, FAST, ERTS, MXIM, GENZ, CELG, GILD. That’s 6 S&P100 stocks and 7 NASDAQ100 stocks. So you can see that the factor seasonal approach really cuts down on trades to look at, and THAT’s VALUABLE!

Of those passing yet a further set of filters, three stocks were left: RTN, FAST and CELG. 41 stocks were reduced to 3 (USB is a semi-possible, which would make 4). Here are the charts:

Raytheon – Aerospace and Defense

Fastenal Company – Materials and Construction”

CELG – Drugs and Biotech