Word just came out that the Wall Street banks, including Morgan Stanley, just had 63 straight days of trading profits. That’s right, not a single day in the previous quarter where their traders lost money. We also now hear that the government is going to probe those firms in a possible criminal investigation. Someone is out for blood.
We looked at Goldman Sachs previously, so how does Morgan Stanley fare? Let’s look at the factor seasonal charts…
The seasonal chart here suggests that we wait for a MACD upturn for a quick rebound in the stock, perhaps a chance for trading profits. But what about during bear markets?
Although we are expecting a severe downturn in July-August, Morgan usually holds steady during market downturns during that period. If it was a normal weakness we were expecting, the seasonal suggests Morgan would be holding its value and thus a safer BUY than we would consider without having any such information. But sine we are expecting a big drop/weakness in August, this typical chart may not hold.
In any case, you now see the power of seasonals in helping to judge a stock for trading purposes. We offer chart books of past stock performance in ALL sorts of trading environments — bull/bear markets, increasing/decreasing inflation rates, increasing/decreasing interest rates, economic expansions/recession, Democrats/Republicans in office, and so on. They are invaluable for both the Technical analyst doing market timing and fundamental trader ho is focusing on earnings and P/E ratios.
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